Top three are given for every race, in that order. Analysis given for my best bet and live longshot of the day. (Download)
Del Mar – August 12th, 2017
| Race: | Selections: | |||
| 1 | 1) 7- Californiasummer 2) 2- Spinyatta 3) 1- Pretty Expensive | |||
| I’m going to try against the favorite here with Californiasummer. I think this horse will get away best of all and is the fastest in the field. If she can get loose on the lead, I think she can be dangerous to steal this gate to wire.
It is still hard to get past Spinyatta so I’ll use her underneath. She was just a nose away from victory last time out. She had put in three really poor efforts leading up, however, where she just showed no interest in running. She drops in class for a third straight time, and towers over this field; all depends on which one of her shows up. The rail horse Pretty Expensive was anything but, just a $1,500 sire fee for this homebred. She was a neck away from victory in her only start, and in that one she got away slow. She should know what to do in the gate this time and could get a similar trip. |
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| 2 | 1) 5- Airfoil 2) 1- Pedro Cerrano 3) 2- Casuality | |||
| This is a race filled with horses who want the lead, but only one of them will get it. Airfoil is the opposite; still a speedster, he can rate of the lead and make a run late. If the pace is as hot as I expect it to be, I want him to be my top bet. Is eligible to improve second off the layoff.
I liked Pedro Cerrano on opening day, but he failed to fire in that contest, as he didn’t get settled early and couldn’t sustain any run. I’m going to play him back here as I do think he is a quality horse and deserves another shot, especially since he is dropping second off the layoff. Last time was his first loss in three runs at Del Mar; let’s hope he goes back to his old ways. Casuality is another that likes to move late and will be able to sit off the early lead. He may be stepping up in class here, but he could steal it based on how the race pace is shaping up. |
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| 3 | 1) 2- Gone to Bali 2) 3- Barleysugar 3) 4- Girl Downstairs | |||
| Call me crazy, but I really like Gone to Bali off the year layoff. She was racing against much better this time last year, but she has beaten this level easily before. I love going with lone speed going a mile on turf at Del Mar and she finds herself in a spot where she is the only horse that wants the front. She may need this race, but I’d like to give her a shot.
Another one coming in off the layoff, Barleysugar was running against much better last year in stakes company, though never could fire right. She took time off and needed her return race badly. She should perform better here and makes the switch to Kent Desormeaux. I’ll play her on the return. I will use a fresh horse too, Girl Downtown who was a last out winner at Del Mar earlier this meet. She faced off against a good field in that allowance race and though stepping up in class, she seems to fit well against this field. |
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| 4 | 1) 1- Sweetwater Gal 2) 3- Rizzi’s Honors 3) 6- La Galy | |||
| Sweetwater Gal should get a much better spot this time around as compared to last race. She should be able to sit right off the pace and then speed home, just like last time. Even in her last out win, the trip was less than ideal. Evin Roman should be able to put her in a perfect spot, especially from the rail.
Rizzi’s Honors is going to the lone speed in this race. If she can shake loose of Sweetwater Gal, she should be able to take this race gate to wire. Blinkers on very key for this horse, who has been breaking poorly in her last two. La Galy was well beaten but well in front of the rest of the field in her last race, her first outside of maiden company. She steps up in class here and gets the services of Vinnie Bednar, who rode her to the 9 ¼ length victory two races back. |
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| 5 | 1) 4- Forest Blue 2) 3- Best Two Minutes 3) 1- Logan’s Moon | |||
| Drawing a much better spot than Alley Boss, Forest Blue will be able to get clear to the front and find himself in the best spot early. Although closing has never been this horse’s specialty, this spot fits really well for him.
Best Two Minutes sits right to his inside and just had a tough trip last time out. Looks to find a better spot here and should be able to sit off the early pace this time around. Tiago Pereira hops on. There was no early pace last race for Logan’s Moon, making it tough for him to close. This race looks to have a much quicker pace, which will help huge in his closing stage burst. Gets Rafael Bejarano. |
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| 6 | 1) 4- Jet Set Man 2) 8- Eichel 3) 1- Chief Hosa | |||
| Just not able to make up any ground until the last second, the ultra-fast Jet Set Man tries again here. He has experience over this Del Mar turf course, which is key, and Evin Roman stays aboard. He looks to be the real deal, let’s see if this time is the charm.
It has been a while since Eichel has run a flat sprint, running only down the hill in his last four. Go five back and he ran a flat 5.5 furlongs on the A/W at Golden Gate, and won that race by a head in a tough trip. He gets back to a flat ground and should be gunning late on a turf course that has been favorite the late move in these short sprints. If I like Jet Set Man I have to like Chief Hosa. His chance was all gone at the draw, being in post 11, and had to swoop over the field in order to get to the lead. He now switches inside, where he can get a clear path to the front without costing too much energy. Dangerous. |
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| 7 | 1) 3- Beyond Pleasure 2) 5- She’s Funny 3) 8- Fantastic Girl | |||
| A wide open 2yo maiden contest for the girls. Beyond Pleasure put in a sharp workout at Del Mar earlier in the week and looks to have improved greatly over the past month. In really good condition and Overanalyze offspring know how to fire at first asking.
Godolphin sends a homebred over in She’s Funny, who has been training well for Richard Mandella. She has been improving in the mornings and gets Flavien Prat. The well-bred daughter of Pioneerof the Nile put in a few good workouts as of late for John Sadler. Pedigree looks to put her right at the top of this field. |
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| 8 | 1) 1- Kencumin 2) 5- Fortune of War 3) 9- Harbour Master | |||
| Kencumin comes off a very sharp work and makes his debut in the US after running in Europe. Was a solid performer in there and gets Bejarano aboard. Very live.
Fortune of War had no chance in the Oceanside from post 11. Gets a much more favorable post here and should be very live. Watch him come down the stretch light a freight train. Putting Desormeaux on Harbour Master might be the best thing. He is another that drew very wide in the Oceanside and lost all chance. Gets a much better spot here and is always running against better. Fits in a great spot here. |
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| 9 | 1) 5- Serengeti 2) 4- Armour Plate 3) 1- Run Away | |||
| BEST PAL STAKES (G2) – Winning by 11 lengths going five furlongs isn’t something to balk at. Smith and Baffert team up again with Serengeti, who looked absolutely perfect last time out. Gets some rest and comes into this race fresh. Also has the pattern of every great Baffert star, lose first time out and fire impressively right after.
Armour Plate is the only horse in this field proven at longer than 5.5 furlongs. Although it was on turf, he coasted home last time in a mile maiden affair at Santa Anita and now returns to the dirt, where he was a solid 4th behind Runaway Ghost and Serengeti. Have to give this one a long look. Run Away has lived up to his name, as he has run away from the field in both his wins. He comes into this race as a horse that shows a lot of speed and will be dangerous on the front end. A versatile 2yo that can get looks easily. |
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| 10 | 1) 5- Kazan 2) 7- Arch Anthem 3) 10- Respect the Hustle | |||
| Use the all button if you can. This is an impossible race. I will put Kazan on top only because he had a solid first start and comes in working well. Lots of unknowns in this race puts this horse in a good spot.
Arch Anthem gets Flavien Prat and looks to fit more as a first time starter than much of this field. Turf may be exactly what Respect the Hustle needs. |
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| Best Bet of the Day: | Beyond Pleasure (Race 7) | Live Longshot of the Day: | Eichel (Race 6) | |
| Her bullet move last time out from the gate factors in huge as to why I like this runner. She is by Overanalyze, who has been a sharp sire for first out winners, and her dam was a great racemare herself. In very good condition. | If Eichel takes to the flat turf as well as I think he will, he will be very tough coming off the pace against the speedy front runners. It’s a gamble here, but I think that the flat sprint will end up being his ideal distance. | |||
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