Del Mar Picks · Handicapping

Del Mar Picks 2017 – 8/5

Top three are given for every race, in that order. Analysis given for my best bet and live longshot of the day (Download).

Del Mar – August 5th, 2017

Race: Selections:
1 1) 2- Soul Sound                               2) 6- Privy                                            3) 8- Anchor Baby
Soul Sound had a tough trip the last two, facing tough speed; she has been facing better and drops into an easier field in her Del Mar debut.  Draws the favorable rail spot.

Privy was green on debut and then just had to fight the whole way around in her second start; she should be able to get the lone lead here and could take them gate to wire.

Anchor Baby for Bob Baffert was very green in debut but has been working much better in the mornings since then; I’ll give her another shot, especially if I can get anywhere near her 4/1 ML.

2 1) 8- Tisdale                                       2) 2- Belisarius                                  3) 1- So Elite
I don’t know many horses trying to pull off a Belterra Park/Del Mar double, but that is the joy of the ship and win program.  Tisdale went gate to wire to beat a strong field in Ohio and comes here to a bottom level group.  The only speed in the race and has taken to the Del Mar track very nicely in his last two workouts, this shipper looks the real deal.

Originally looked like a long distance stakes type, Belisarius makes a huge drop in class to try and pick up a win.  Should improve second on the dirt.

Gary Stevens picks up the mount on a horse coming from quality races up in Northern California.  He will be the class of this field and, although a hanger, is the one they will have to beat here.

3 1) 1- Wood Machine                      2) 6- Unusual Meeting                  3) 7- I’malreadyhere
Perhaps the only one that will be running late, Wood Machine is another live mount for Gary Stevens.  Makes a drop in class, and a much needed on at that.  Will be closing on a track that has been favoring late speed more and more as the meet goes on.

Another class dropper, Unusual Meeting hasn’t put in a bad effort in a while.  Made the return to Souther California last time out and was an even 3rd; eligible to improve here.

I’malreadythere is going to stalk the pace early and is riding the wave of two straight wins.  I think he has been beating up on better and should fit nicely here.

4 1) 6- Red Carpet Cat                        2) 7- Have Some Pride                   3) 1- Getoffmyback
After trying turf and 6 ½ in his last two, Red Carpet Cat finally gets back to the 5 ½ that he prefers.  Still facing tougher than what he beat, he should be sitting right off of what may be an electric front end pace, which could be a very good spot for him.

If able to survive what is sure to be a tough early pace, Have Some Pride could do well in his debut at this level.  He has shown a lot in his last two and won easy last time out.  Sharp horse; only test is if he can sustain a run when challenged.

The rail could be a very good spot today, and that is exactly where Getoffmyback will be.  Has shown early speed in most of his starts, he usually backs down when challenged.  He will be challenged here, but with Prat aboard, he may be able to get more out of this horse than he has been, and he is very live off coming back to a sprint.

5 1) 11- Cordiality                                2) 10- Mrs. Norris                             3) 5- Mai Tai
After winning in her return from the layoff, Cordiality steps into open company after taking the down the hill turf event at Santa Anita.  She has been coming out of live races and has faced tough company throughout her career.  Although easily outkicked her last time going a mile on the turf, she looks to be a completely different horse this year and should be poised for another win second off the layoff.

Right to her inside is Mrs. Norris, who is a Del Mar lover.  She closed from the back of the pack to just be a game second in her last start at Del Mar and has been 2nd 2 of her 3 tries on the Del Mar turf.  She is a horse for course and gets a hot jockey in Drayden Van Dyke.

Mai Tai has be no worse than 2nd in her last 6.  Gets Kent Desormeaux back aboard after the long layoff and returns to the mile distance that she likes, after coming up short to downhill specialist Anita Partner (who has come back well in graded and black type stakes events).  Will be moving strong late.

6 1) 6- Diamondsandpearls             2) 7- Midnight Summer                 3) 1- Surrender Now
SORRENTO STAKES (G2) – Surrender Now is hard to knock and Flavien Prat’s choice of the two Peter Miller horses; clear winner of the Landaluce and has fought for both her wins.  She seems to be the most mature of the hroses in this field and is in a very favorable spot.

Baffert and Mike Smith team up here with 2yo Diamondsandpearls, who won easily on debut.  Shifts to an outer post and finds a field with more speed, but her last effort is more than enough to win here.

Midnight Summer was ultra-fast in her last out win and could clear this field from the outer post.  Flavien Prat does go to the favorite, but this one loose is dangerous.

7 1) 8- Impeachableoffense           2) 4- Bolt d’Oro                                 3) 3- Channel Crossing
I’ve been really liking this horse in the mornings and Orb 1st time starters have been winning at a 17% clip.  Scott Hansen isn’t known for his 2yos, but Impeachableoffense looks to be a smart play here, and with some value to back him up.

A half to Sonic Mule, who won on debut last year, Bolt d’Oro has the pedigree to tower over this field.  She has been working well and this barn has been hot with 1st time starters this year.

Jerry Hollendorfer puts Channel Crossing in here with Flavien Prat and finds a very nice spot.  He is taking a shot with him (as he is part owner) but looks to fit well here.

8 1) 8- Avenge                                      2) 6- Pretty Girl                                 3) 4- Juno
YELLOW RIBBON HANDICAP (G2) – I don’t really want to use the chalk here, but Avenge seems to be the real deal.  She faced Lady Eli and the always sharp Goodyearforroses in her first start back from the layoff last our in the Gamely (G1).  Should improve in her second off the layoff and is coming in fresh.  The outside post should help her here and she will be the one controlling the pace early.  Tough spot for anyone else.

I’ve liked Pretty Girl ever since she came over to challenge our best in the Beverly D.  Now she is a US based horse and I think she is much better than her running lines.  Going to give her one last shot.

Juno has been having some tough trips as of late.  If she can get a clearer trip, now being able to start not on the rail, she has a chance to be in it at the end.

9 1) 5- Coastline                                   2) 6- Curlin Rules                             3) 4- Avanti Bello
Phil D’Amato needed to give Coastline a break after last race in the San Carlos, where no horse had a shot at beating Danzing Candy or stable-mate Ransom the Moon (next out winner of the Bing Crosby) that day.  Finds an easier field than he faced last time at this level and finds a spot without much early speed.  Early speed going a mile has been very strong this meet and looks like it will be again for him.

Second start back on the dirt for Curlin Rules may be exactly what he needs.  I’ll give him a pass last race due to the layoff, but still came back for a great second.  Bullet work on 7/29 right here at Del Mar helps plenty.

Soi Phet, California Chrome, Silent Bird, Hoppertunity, Mor Spirit, Collected, Danzing Candy, Ambitious Brew – lots of big names in the running lines for Avanti Bello has made winning races very tough for this son of Include.  Finally gets some much needed relief and gets hot rider Evin Roman.  If there is a day for this horse to win a race, it would be today.

10 1) 1- Kinematico                               2) 5- Captain Ron                             3) 12- Waldorf
Could be bombs away in the finale, but I’ll stick with the only horse that is somewhat proven, Kinematico.  Drops out of better and should improve second try at this distance.  May be the only horse trying for the lead early and could take this group around the track, a group filled with a lot of horses still trying to work things out.

The blinkers come off for Captain Ron, who looks to improve going to a mile.  He has been showing early speed going down the hill and picks up Evin Roman.  Looks to be a weak field so today may be his day.

Gary Stevens stays for the finale to ride Waldorf in his first start on the turf.  His pedigree screams grass and he has shown enough prowess in his last three to look to fit.  If he takes to the turf, he may be able to get the win here, at a price.

Best Bet of the Day: Coastline (Race 9) Live Longshot of the Day: Waldorf (Race 10)
Using running in stakes races, on both surfaces, Coastline gets class relief after dueling with Danzing Candy early last time out in the San Carlos.  He didn’t do his job last time out, trying to play rabbit for his stablemate, and eventual Bing Crosby – G1 winner Ransom the Moon, as Danzing Candy still had enough in the tank to win.  He will now be racing to win the race for himself this time, and against much lesser.  Don’t see any reason why he can’t win today and has a win and a third in his only two starts at a dirt mile. In a race that looks to be for the longshots, Waldorf will try the turf for the first time in his young career and has Gary Stevens coming back aboard on the switch.  His pedigree says he will take to the turf, and I am willing to give him a shot here.

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