Kentucky Derby 2015 Picks

 

 

Tomorrow is the Run for the Roses, Kentucky Derby 141.  For the past few months, we have watched the preps, seen the contenders, and been working on who is the best of this 3-year old crop.  Although I think this years Derby is missing some of the best 3-year olds, it is still a very difficult race to handicap.  Just about half the field has a good shot at winning, or at least hitting the board.  Another third of the field has a chance to hit the board.  There are a lot of horses that you can get at a great price, and there are others that are a must use.

How the Race Will Go:

Dortmund drew a nice post and should be right out in front early.  Ocho Ocho Ocho will be behind him, but will take a while to get there due to the bad post.  American Pharoah will follow the front runners and be a few lengths in front of the field.  The pace will be moderate.  Leading the pack of runners will be Mubtaahij and Materiality, with Carpe Diem and Upstart right behind.  Itsaknockout, Firing Line, and Frosted will be midpack, and the rest will be tailing the field, with Frammento and Keen Ice off the pace.  As they go onto the backstretch, Dortmund will still be leading, but Ocho Ocho Ocho will have fallen back to around mid pack.  American Pharoah will keep pace with his stable mate and Frosted will begin to make his move.  The rest of the field will pretty much be where they were early, just a little more spread out.  Keen Ice will start making a little ground up but Frammento will still be far back.  On the turn, things start to shake up.  Dortmund and American Pharoah increase the pace and give a bit of separation to Frosted and Mubtaahij, who is just keeping pace on the outside.  Firing Line will be next and moving very fast, passing Frosted and Mubtaahij on the turn.  Bolo will begin to move up and Upstart will make his move.  Closer Far Right will be around mid pack as will Keen Ice.  El Kabeir will be right behind them, followed by Danzig Moon and a rail running International Star.  As they come down the stretch, Dortmund begins to give way to American Pharoah, who is running a great stalking trip.  It will be like watching a replay of 2012, with Bodemeister in front.  But here comes Mubtaahij, closing fast.  In only 150m, he already took to the front and is gaining on the tiring American Pharoah.  Firing Line will be coming like a rocket too.  Behind them are Frosted and Keen Ice closing late.  As they cross the wire, Mubtaahij and Firing Line finish within a length of each other, with American Pharoah right behind.

Projected Final Order of Finish:

1. 6- Mubtaahij
2. 10- Firing Line
3. 18- American Pharoah
4. 15- Frosted
5. 14- Keen Ice
6. 5- Danzig Moon
7. 8- Dortmund
8. 9- Bolo
9. 19- Upstart
10. 2- Carpe Diem
11. 21- Frammento
12. 4- Tencendur
13. 17- Mr. Z
14. 7- El Kabeir
15. 20- Far Right
16. 16- War Story
17. 3- Materiality
18. 12- International Star
19. 1- Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. 13- Itsaknockout

Tickets:

• WPS on 6-Mubtaahij
• WPS on 10-Firing Line
• ExBx 6-10-18
• TriBx 6-10-18-15
• Superfecta Wheel 6,10,18 with 6,10,18,15,14 with 6,10,18,15,14 with 15,14,5,8,9

There you have, the Irish bred, Dubai owned, South African trained, UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  Good Luck to all, and may the Run for the Roses be ever so sweet.