Kentucky Derby · Triple Crown

Kentucky Derby 2015 Picks

HRS Kentucky Derby



Tomorrow is the Run for the Roses, Kentucky Derby 141.  For the past few months, we have watched the preps, seen the contenders, and been working on who is the best of this 3-year old crop.  Although I think this years Derby is missing some of the best 3-year olds, it is still a very difficult race to handicap.  Just about half the field has a good shot at winning, or at least hitting the board.  Another third of the field has a chance to hit the board.  There are a lot of horses that you can get at a great price, and there are others that are a must use.

How the Race Will Go:

Dortmund drew a nice post and should be right out in front early.  Ocho Ocho Ocho will be behind him, but will take a while to get there due to the bad post.  American Pharoah will follow the front runners and be a few lengths in front of the field.  The pace will be moderate.  Leading the pack of runners will be Mubtaahij and Materiality, with Carpe Diem and Upstart right behind.  Itsaknockout, Firing Line, and Frosted will be midpack, and the rest will be tailing the field, with Frammento and Keen Ice off the pace.  As they go onto the backstretch, Dortmund will still be leading, but Ocho Ocho Ocho will have fallen back to around mid pack.  American Pharoah will keep pace with his stable mate and Frosted will begin to make his move.  The rest of the field will pretty much be where they were early, just a little more spread out.  Keen Ice will start making a little ground up but Frammento will still be far back.  On the turn, things start to shake up.  Dortmund and American Pharoah increase the pace and give a bit of separation to Frosted and Mubtaahij, who is just keeping pace on the outside.  Firing Line will be next and moving very fast, passing Frosted and Mubtaahij on the turn.  Bolo will begin to move up and Upstart will make his move.  Closer Far Right will be around mid pack as will Keen Ice.  El Kabeir will be right behind them, followed by Danzig Moon and a rail running International Star.  As they come down the stretch, Dortmund begins to give way to American Pharoah, who is running a great stalking trip.  It will be like watching a replay of 2012, with Bodemeister in front.  But here comes Mubtaahij, closing fast.  In only 150m, he already took to the front and is gaining on the tiring American Pharoah.  Firing Line will be coming like a rocket too.  Behind them are Frosted and Keen Ice closing late.  As they cross the wire, Mubtaahij and Firing Line finish within a length of each other, with American Pharoah right behind.

Projected Final Order of Finish:

  1. 6- Mubtaahij
  2. 10- Firing Line
  3. 18- American Pharoah
  4. 15- Frosted
  5. 14- Keen Ice
  6. 5- Danzig Moon
  7. 8- Dortmund
  8. 9- Bolo
  9. 19- Upstart
  10. 2- Carpe Diem
  11. 21- Frammento
  12. 4- Tencendur
  13. 17- Mr. Z
  14. 7- El Kabeir
  15. 20- Far Right
  16. 16- War Story
  17. 3- Materiality
  18. 12- International Star
  19. 1- Ocho Ocho Ocho
  20. 13- Itsaknockout


  • WPS on 6-Mubtaahij
  • WPS on 10-Firing Line
  • ExBx 6-10-18
  • TriBx 6-10-18-15
  • Superfecta Wheel 6,10,18 with 6,10,18,15,14 with 6,10,18,15,14 with 15,14,5,8,9

There you have, the Irish bred, Dubai owned, South African trained, UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  Good Luck to all, and may the Run for the Roses be ever so sweet.


5 thoughts on “Kentucky Derby 2015 Picks

  1. What happens now that El Kabeir is out. In addition, with Stanford out, American Pharoah is now in post 17. Post 1 is now closed and 1 begins in Post 2 which makes Keen Ice 13, Frosted 14, American Pharoah 17, Upstart 18, Far Right 19 and Frammento 20. With Post 1 closed and Beggining in Post 2, the posts shouid be:
    1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Please confirm..Thanks.


    1. Horses in posts 1-6 move in one. Gates 2-20 are being used. All horses outside of El Kabeir stay where they were after the Stanford scratch. American Pharoah still in 17 post. All program numbers stay the same.


  2. I just need to understand your selections…Mubtaahij 6, Firing Line 10, Upstart 18 and War Story 15. Tri Box 6, 10, 18, 15, etc.


  3. Should there be a correction made to the numbers that you posted?
    Projected Final Order of Finish:

    6- Mubtaahij
    10- Firing Line
    18- American Pharoah (17)
    15- Frosted (14)
    14- Keen Ice (13)
    5- Danzig Moon
    8- Dortmund
    9- Bolo
    19- Upstart (18)
    2- Carpe Diem
    21- Frammento (20)
    4- Tencendur
    17- Mr. Z (16)
    7- El Kabeir
    20- Far Right (19)
    16- War Story (15)
    3- Materiality
    12- International Star (11)
    1- Ocho Ocho Ocho
    13- Itsaknockout (12)

    WPS on 6-Mubtaahij
    WPS on 10-Firing Line
    ExBx 6-10-18
    TriBx 6-10-18-15
    Superfecta Wheel 6,10,18 with 6,10,18,15,14 with 6,10,18,15,14 with 15,14,5,8,9


  4. All of my tickets use the program numbers, not post positions. While post positions have changed due to scratches, the program numbers haven’t. These are the numbers that you would use at the betting window. No changes to program numbers are necessary.


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