Kentucky Derby

2013 Kentucky Derby Ups and Downs


Only a few days out, here are the Ups and Downs of this years Kentucky Derby!

Ups

  • Normandy Invasion: An early closer has a great run style fit for the Kentucky Derby.  NI likes the back and with Javier Castellano, he is sure to be a threat.  Even though he only has a maiden win to his name, NI has been improving over the past few races, coming very close his last race.  The late speed he has is amazing, and todays workout just made that statement even more valid. Hopefully Chad Brown can break his Derby maiden with this super horse.
  • Mylute: Another closer, Mylute is very patient and calm.  He loves the back and makes steady moves near the end.  He might not have enough to win, but he will be great for exotics.
  • Itsmyluckyday: The Holy Bull winner is going be tough to beat… if he runs right.  With my favorite jockey Elvis Trujillo on the mount, he is going to be tough.  The only problem is that his run style is going to make it tough to win, but keep him for some exotics.
  • Goldencents: One year ago Doug O’Neill shocked the world with I’ll Have Another.  This year, he has another chance with Rick Pitino’s Prized Pony Goldencents.  A front runner has a very hard time winning the Derby but if any horse is to do it, this one would be the one.  He has great speed and is smart about taking the lead.  If Krigger can keep him under control, the Santa Anita Derby winner could shock the world.
  • Orb: Did you really think I would forget the favorite! The legendary Shug McGaughey finally has an amazing shot at the Derby with this closing horse.  He is an early closer, just like Normandy Invasion, and will definitely compete with NI down the stretch.  The Florida Derby winner flies down the stretch at the end of races and could easily use that speed, as long as he isn’t challenged too much, which is a strong possibility with NI in the field.
  • Java’s War: Just had to throw him in.  I like him enough to have him in some exotics but winning, ehhh.  He just reminds me of how Animal Kingdom ran in the Derby so maybe Java has a chance.

Downs

  • Todd Pletcher Field: 5 horses. 5 chances to win. 1 race. Seems like good odds… if Pletcher had a better Derby record.  Revolutionary, even though he is a closer, has stamina problems, easily causing him to tire late when moving with a bunch of other closers.  You don’t need to analyze Overanalyze too much, he doesn’t like to be with a lot of horses so a 20 horse field could be too much for this young horse.  Palice Malice has the best shot, in my opinion, out of all of the Pletcher horses.  He rides in the pack and loves the rail; if he finds space late, Mike Smith may have a winner… too bad he is too inconsistent to be trusted.  Everyone loves the undefeated Verrazano, but as a front runner, and with only four career races, the Wood Memorial winner might not be able to hold of numerous closers and stalkers in this field.  Finally Charming Kitten.  Winning his sire’s namesake stakes may be a good thing, but that’s as far as good things go.  He as no early push and has falling back in his last few races.  He might have a chance to hit the board if things go real well but very little chance at him getting to the line first.
  • Lines of Battle: In 139 incarnations of the Derby, no European raced horse has ever won.  Sorry, but with this field, Aiden O’Brien (who I think will one day win a Derby) won’t be making history.
  • Black Onyx: Stamina could be a big issue with this horse.  And he is on the rail.  Sorry, Jumping Joe Bravo and Kelly Breen won’t be getting a Derby win this year.
  • Oxbow: Young.  Gary Stevens is definitely going to put him in a position to win, but this horse is too young to be at the Twin Spires on Derby day.  Oxbow has some stamina issues and struggles a lot when not in the lead so he doesn’t have the best chance in the field.
  • Golden Soul, Giant Finish, and Frac Daddy: Outclassed.
  • Flying Sky: A front runner with stamina problems. Probably not going hit the board.

Ok! There is your ups and downs. Comment your opinions below.  Pretty much slicing the field in two.  See you tomorrow for my Elite Eight!! Good Luck this Weekend and don’t forget to download the Stat Sheets!!

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