Super Friday 7/18: Picks From 5 Tracks

Today is Saratoga Opening Day, the start of summer on the East Coast.  Now, not only will Saratoga be running, but all the summer tracks will be running, including Del Mar, Monmouth, and Arlington.  So in honor of the first Friday of our summer, I have picks for 5 tracks across the nation! Enjoy!!

  • Arlington Park (First Post: 4:00pm Est)
    • Race 1: 1 – 5 – 3
    • Race 2: 1 – 7 – 6
    • Race 3: 2 – 1A – 5
    • Race 4: 5 – 7 – 3
    • Race 5: 7* – 8 – 1
    • Race 6: 8 – 6 – 3
    • Race 7: 5 – 8 – 3
    • Race 8: 1 -2 – 6
    • Race 9: 6 – 1 – 10
  • Del Mar (First Post: 7:00pm Est)
    • Race 1: 2 – 4 – 3
    • Race 2: 6 – 3 – 4
    • Race 3: 4 – 7 – 2
    • Race 4: 4 – 9 – 5
    • Race 5: 4 – 1 – 3
    • Race 6: 4* – 8 – 1
    • Race 7: 7 – 4 – 3
    • Race 8: 4 – 8 – 10
  • Evangeline Downs (First Post: 6:45pm Est)
    • Race 1: 3 – 5 – 4
    • Race 2: 1 – 8 – 2
    • Race 3: 12 – 2 – 6
    • Race 4: 4 – 5 – 6
    • Race 5: 14 – 13 – 3
    • Race 6: 10* – 6 – 8
    • Race 7: 8 – 7 – 11
    • Race 8: 6 – 1 – 4
    • Race 9: 1 – 10 – 3
    • Race 10: 6 – 1 – 2
  • Los Alamitos Quarter Horse (First Post: 10:20pm Est)
    • Race 1: 5 – 1 – 2
    • Race 2: 4 – 9 – 2
    • Race 3: 5 – 3 – 2
    • Race 4: 8 – 5 – 3
    • Race 5: 3 – 5 – 6
    • Race 6: 4 – 6 – 2
    • Race 7: 3 – 5 – 1
    • Race 8: 1 – 4 – 8
    • Race 9: 2* – 4 – 6
  • Monmouth Park (First Post: 12:50pm Est)
    • Race 1: 7 – 2 – 6
    • Race 2: 1 – 6 – 2
    • Race 3: 4 – 6 – 2
    • Race 4: 7 – 6 – 1
    • Race 5: 6 – 5 – 7
    • Race 6: 5 – 3 – 6
    • Race 7: 5 – 8 – 7
    • Race 8: 6* – 8 – 10
    • Race 9: 6 – 2 – 7
    • Race 10: 7 – 3 – 12
  • Saratoga (First Post: 1:00pm Est)
    • Race 1: 4 – 5 – 1
    • Race 2: 2* – 9 – 6
    • Race 3: 4 – 3 – 2
    • Race 4: 4 – 3 – 7
    • Race 5: 13 – 10 – 1
    • Race 6: 2 – 4 – 6
    • Race 7: 8 – 1 – 11
    • Race 8: 3 – 1 – 10
    • Race 9: 1 – 2 – 3
    • Race 10: 11 – 12 – 9

*Best Bet of the Card

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Del Mar Opening Day

To help you win big on Del Mar Opening Day, here is an Early Pick 5 ticket and a Late Pick 4 ticket.  Good Luck!

Pick 5 (Races 1-5): 8-10 with 2-3-12 with 1-4-5 with 4-5-8 with 4-8-9

Pick 4 (Races 7-10): 2-3-8-10 with 3-4-6-7 with 4-5 with 5-11-13

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Summer Stakes Preview

Some notes on this summers hottest stakes.

Haskell:
-Untapable v ‘The Boys’
-How will Wildcat Red do outside of Gulfstream Park? (8: 5-3-0 at Gulf; 18th in Derby)
-Bayern, better as a sprinter?
Return of Medal Count
-Dark Horse Pick: Albano (had him in top 5 Derby Contendera after Risen Star, made big return in Pegasus)
Jim Dandy:
-Kid Cruz v Tonalist v Wicked Strong
-Kid Cruz one of the most underrated 3 year olds; 2 straight Belmont wins shows he can compete outside of MD listed
-Could be deciding race to who can challenge California Chrome for 3yo of the year
Sussex Stakes (Goodwood – GB):
-Verrazano returns to 1 mile
-Night of Thunder (2,000 Guineas Winner) v rival Kingman (1-2 in 2,000 Guineas, then other way around in St. James Palace Stakes)
-Will basically be prep for the Juddmonte Invitational in August, which will feature mainly the same field
Whitney Handicap:
-Palace Malice returns
-Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge also heading there
-Departing is the dark horse in the race
Fourstardave:
-Wise Dan returns
Personal Ensign:
-Princess of Sylmar v Close Hatches
-Was Delaware Handicap loss a fluke or was it the real Princess
Pacific Classic:
-Game On Dude returns
-Shared Belief taking the challenge
-Majestic Harbor (Santa Anita Gold Cup Winner) also going for Classic
Funny Cide:
-Bustin It, probably the most impressive 2yo right now, heading here
-Won Rockville Centre by 7 lengths
Woodward Stakes:
-Biggest Mile Race before Breeders Cup
-Palace Malice v Wise Dan v Mucho Macho Man

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Pedigree Nation: Tiz an Important Sire

Some of the most important sires of the past few decades have been from A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Thunder Gulch, Danzig, and in more reason years, Giant’s Causeway, Distorted Humor, and Kitten’s Joy.  While these sires all are great in their own right, each traces their sire line back to one major line, that of Darley Arabian, one of the three foundation sires.  A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Danzig, Giant’s Causeway, and Kitten’s Joy trace back through Nearco, while Thunder Gulch and Distorted Humor go through Mr. Prospector  Going back even farther, those two lines (Mr. Prospector and Nearco), trace back to one horse, British racehorse Phalaris.  There, our story begins.  Phalaris, a stallion from Polymelus out of Bromus became one of the most important sires in history.  Sire of five European Classic Race winners, his descendents include the past three US Triple Crown winners, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed.  Other descendents are European champions Nijinsky (better known in the states as Nijinsky II), Nasrullah, Galileo (sire of Frankel and Cape Blanco) and High Chaparrel.  However, probably the two most important direct progeny are Pharos and Sickle.  Pharos, 2nd in the 1923 Epsom Derby, may not have been the most successful of races, but was one of the most successful of sires.  Sire of Federico Tesio’s Nearco, an undefeated runner and an important sire in his own right, Pharos would begin the Nearco line that would appear in many of the major sires around the world and some of the most accomplished races.  Since 1985, every Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner can be traced back to Nearco.  Nearco went on to sire Nasrullah, who sired Bold Ruler, an eight time leading sire in North America, and of course, sire of Secretariat. Another important offspring of Nearco is Northern Dancer, near Triple Crown winner in 1964, who has had more Breeders’ Cup winners come from his bloodline than any other horse.  Northern Dancer is the sire of Nijinsky, Danzig, Storm Bird, and Sadler’s Wells, all who went on to be outstanding sires.  However, most of the important horses from him come from his offspring.  He is on the paternal side of Storm Cat, Deputy Minister, El Prado, Danehill, Big Brown, Makybe Diva, Mine that Bird, Rachel Alexandra, Summer Bird, Sea the Stars, Frankel, and Black Caviar.  Now that is one amazing list of offspring.  From the other offspring of Phalaros, Sickle left his legacy to his great-great grandsire, Raise a Native, an important horse to have when it comes to winning the Kentucky Derby; winners like Affirmed, Street Sense, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, and Funny Cide had him on their sire line.  Of course, one of the most important sons of Raise a Native is Mr. Prospector, one of the most important sires in history, who would be a major reason why the Darley Arabian sire-line has become such a dominant bloodline in recent North American history.
Continue reading

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Belmont Stakes 2014: Final Picks

No matter what way I look at it, California Chrome will win.  Therefore he is at the top of my tickets and the single in my pick 6.  After him, I like Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin, with Matuszak as my live longshot.

The Bets:

  • $10 Place/Show – 4 Commanding Curve
  • $10 Place/Show – 5 Ride On Curlin
  • $5 Place/Show – 6 Matuszak
  • $.50 Trifecta – 2 with 4,5,6,9 with 4,5,6,9 with 4,5,6,9
  • $1 Pick 6 (Rcs 5-11) – 1,7 with 1 with 4,5,10 with 1,4,6,9 with 4,6 with 2

Good Luck to Everyone!! And Good Luck to California Chrome!! Hopefully we can be cheering about a Triple Crown tomorrow night!!

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Belmont Stakes 2014: Post Positions

1. Medal Count (20-1)

2. California Chrome (3-5)

3. Matterhorn (30-1)

4. Commanding Curve (15-1)

5. Ride On Curlin (12-1)

6. Matuszak (30-1)

7. Samraat (20-1)

8. Commissioner (20-1)

9. Wicked Strong (6-1)

10. General a Rod (20-1)

11. Tonalist (8-1)

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Belmont Stakes 2014: Early Rankings

With only a few days until California Chrome’s chance at the final jewel, and a day until the post position draw, let us go through the contenders and see who has the best chance in the field to win.

  1. California Chrome
    1. Obviously the heavy favorite, he has the running style to win the Belmont.  The only thing I have against him is how he will deal with the distance.  He seemed to be not putting it all in late in the Preakness, which could show some stamina issues, but maybe with the three weeks off, and the amount of workouts at longer distances, he will be able to stay the trip.  The distance isn’t too much of a turnoff to going with him, but the odds are.  Will definitely be putting him in every exotic, but no straight up bets, maybe a souvenir bet.
  2. Tonalist
    1. The new shooter in the field, Tonalist comes out of the Peter Pan in excellent condition.  He has a running style that will help him out as he will stalk the pace and probably pressure California Chrome to make an early move.  If any horse could stop California Chrome from winning the Triple Crown, it would be Tonalist, but not because he will beat him, but rather he will force him to tire late, leaving the door open for another horse or himself to beat California Chrome.
  3. Commanding Curve
    1. Usually I don’t go for closers in the Belmont, or horses who have owners who guarantee a win (but that has seemed to work in California Chrome’s favor so maybe absolutes aren’t that bad), but the distance will play in favor of the other CC.  Commanding Curve was only a few strides from possibly passing California Chrome in the Derby, and has been working very well since.  While he isn’t running the fastest in the workouts, he is a very late and deep closer, so I don’t expect much from his workouts, but they are very good for his running style.  If the pace favors him, he will be in it in the end.
  4. Matuszak
    1. While I am not completely sold on this horse, he is coming out of a very good Federico Tesio (along side Kid Cruz), and I think will relish the distance more than his rival.  I think he is the best horse coming out of the Pimlico prep and has a lot to show.  He beat Ring Weekend in his first race, but hasn’t been able to get past rial Kid Cruz in his last three.  While his running style (like Kid Cruz and Commanding Curve) may not be the best to win the Belmont Stakes with, stranger things have happened, and I like him more than a lot of other horses in this field.  Live longshot.
  5. Wicked Strong
    1. Coming off a closing fourth in the Derby, the early favorite to knock off California Chrome in the Belmont has been training well at Belmont.  He shows some of the best speed throughout the race and has been very good in New York races.  However, just like Commanding Curve and Matuszak he is a closer.  The pace should not be too fast with a lot of closers in the field, but should still show a lot of speed late in the race with General A Rod and Samraat setting the pace early.
  6. Ride On Curlin
    1. The Preakness run was basically perfect but did not beat California Chrome late.  He was chasing however, showing that he should have a no problem getting the distance.  He will be chasing late and will show a lot of late speed.  Could easily see him winning.
  7. Samraat
    1. After running a great race in the Derby at a slightly slower pace than in the Wood Memorial, Samraat will be setting the pace in the race.  A very good New York runner, Samraat has some of the best early speed in the race.  The only bad thing about him is that General A Rod won’t be letting him get free on the lead and pressure him for most of the race, tiring him late.  But if General A Rod decides to sit back on the pace like he did in the Preakness, expect Samraat to be running strong late.
  8. General A Rod
    1. Speaking of General A Rod, this horse should be up at the lead with Samraat.  While he will probably be a better sprinter than a distance horse, he is just a cut above the remaining horses in the field.  His early speed will help keep everyone in the race, but he and Samraat will press the pace, so expect a pace similar to the Derby.  Probably won’t win, but has a better chance to hit the board than the rest of the field.
  9. Social Inclusion
    1. One of the favorites to beat California Chrome in the Preakness, he was unable to do anything but holding on for third.  He was tiring late making it seem as if he will be unable to get the distance.  He is lightly raced and doesn’t seem to show enough to get the win.
  10. Commissioner
    1. Another horse coming out of the Peter Pan, he ran a very good race on a sloppy track last time out.  He ran in many Derby preps throughout the Spring, but was unable to get a win.  Even in the weak Sunland Derby he couldn’t get past Chitu or Midnight Hawk.  Maybe if it is sloppy he has a chance, but not expecting much from this horse.
  11. Medal Count
    1. A much better synthetic horse, Medal Count did not show much in the Derby, or just about any of his dirt starts.  Don’t see him getting the dirt, or even the distance.  Not even worth a look.
  12. Matterhorn
    1. While he may have finished 4th in the Peter Pan, it was a long fourth, showing very little to say he will improve.  However he did come out of the February 22nd Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream, the one Constitution won over Tonalist which was more competitive than many Derby preps.  But Matterhorn won’t be giving Todd Pletcher another Belmont win.
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